A Sharp Prior-Sensitivity Threshold for Fixed-Partition Support Boundaries
Manuscript 14 October 2026 · Online 14 October 2026
Abstract
For a Poisson support-boundary experiment with fixed known bins and independent positive locally log-Lipschitz priors, we prove posterior equivalence to the product-exponential reference when \(\sum_j(n\Delta_j)^{-2}\to0\), uniformly over bounded true heights. Equal bins yield \(K=o(n^{2/3})\). A fixed proper Laplace prior proves the sharp threshold and exact critical total-variation profile. We also derive integral-posterior consequences and a one-bin exact-mean characterization.
The reference experiment and asymptotic \(K/n\) correction are credited to prior work. The broad source discussion is not newly closed. This AI-assisted preprint is self-audited and unrefereed; absolute priority, independent review and formal verification are not certified.
Record
- Affiliation
- Mercury Software GmbH
- Contact
- [email protected] · GitHub
- Result
- Complete scoped theorem
- Categories
- math.ST · stat.TH
- Manuscript
- 14 October 2026
- Online release
- 14 October 2026
- Version
- 1.0
- License
- Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Files and verification
The PDF is the canonical reading copy. The source archive contains the LaTeX manuscript, bibliography, reproducibility material, and audit documents without build artefacts.
Citation
Alper Ferudun, “A Sharp Prior-Sensitivity Threshold for Fixed-Partition Support Boundaries,” EulerSolve Research Papers, OWR-15221-002, 2026. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23357349.
BibTeX
@misc{ferudun2026priorsensitivity,
author = {Ferudun, Alper},
title = {A Sharp Prior-Sensitivity Threshold for Fixed-Partition Support Boundaries},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {EulerSolve Research Papers},
url = {https://eulersolve.org/papers/owr-15221-002/},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23357349},
note = {OWR-15221-002; unrefereed preprint}
}