{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "problem_number": "OWR-15221-002",
  "title": "A Sharp Prior-Sensitivity Threshold for Fixed-Partition Support Boundaries",
  "author": {
    "name": "Alper Ferudun",
    "affiliation": "Mercury Software GmbH",
    "url": "https://github.com/AlperTheKing"
  },
  "abstract": "For a Poisson support-boundary experiment with fixed known bins and independent positive locally log-Lipschitz priors, we prove posterior equivalence to the product-exponential reference when sum_j (n Delta_j)^(-2) tends to zero, uniformly over bounded true heights. Equal bins yield K=o(n^(2/3)). A fixed proper Laplace prior proves the sharp threshold and exact critical total-variation profile. We also derive integral-posterior consequences and a one-bin exact-mean characterization. The reference experiment and asymptotic K/n correction are credited to prior work. The broad source discussion is not newly closed. This AI-assisted preprint is self-audited and unrefereed; absolute priority, independent review and formal verification are not certified.",
  "result_type": "COMPLETE_PROOF",
  "categories": [
    "math.ST",
    "stat.TH"
  ],
  "keywords": [
    "Bayesian asymptotics",
    "support boundary",
    "Bernstein-von Mises",
    "prior sensitivity",
    "critical dimension",
    "OWR-15221-002"
  ],
  "manuscript_version_date": "2026-10-14",
  "publication_date": "2026-10-14",
  "publication_date_kind": "first public online release",
  "version": "1.0",
  "date_modified": "2026-10-14",
  "presentation_revision_only": false,
  "doi_archived_file_version": "1.0",
  "status": "unrefereed preprint",
  "canonical_url": "https://eulersolve.org/papers/owr-15221-002/",
  "pdf_url": "https://eulersolve.org/papers/owr-15221-002/paper.pdf?v=82d041e4567f",
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23357349",
  "zenodo_record_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23357349",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "scope_caveat": "Complete theorem for fixed known partitions and independent positive priors with locally Lipschitz logarithms, including a proper-prior sharpness example. No general random-partition, dependent-prior or misspecification result is claimed. The broad OWR discussion already contains conditional answers; it is not newly closed. Earlier work is credited; novelty is not certified.",
  "files": {
    "paper.pdf": {
      "sha256": "82d041e4567f185c65f0dc3823a2b3debed5fdffa1c740beb42ebe99f62f989d"
    },
    "source.zip": {
      "sha256": "fa29bbaaf24f977908b5383a657e99faea8b4e1cb739beff524692aa1302d424"
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    "verification_report.md": {
      "sha256": "e896ac996b413725d99d7f4346b588a18077c5544a8ba1dc37413509d9cffe17"
    }
  },
  "ai_use_disclosure": "AI-assisted tools supported research, computation, proof development, and manuscript preparation. The author remains responsible for all claims and the final text."
}